Famous US expert notes western orientation in Belarus

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Like Ukraine, Belarus is beginning to re-orient itself toward the West, Zbigniew Brzezinski, a renowned US political expert and former advisor to several presidents, writes in an article published by the Financial Times on Tuesday.

"One way or another, Ukraine will unavoidably come closer to Europe," he predicts. "It is striking that even in neighbouring Belarus, ruled by the authoritarian Lukashenko [Lukashenka] regime, a similar western orientation is beginning to surface. Neither country is motivated by hostility towards Russia, but each senses that its independence as well as its cultural identity points increasingly in a westward direction."

Dr. Brzezinski writes that the impact of this on Russia will be felt over the longer run. "Moscow's current geopolitical goal, shaped by President Vladimir Putin's nostalgic obsession with the country's imperial past, is to recreate in a new guise something akin to the old Russian empire or the more recent Soviet 'union,'" he says. "Mr. Putin seems to harbour the naive notion that the leaders of the post-Soviet states will genuinely accept a subordinate role in a Kremlin-led entity. Some of the leaders do pay occasional lip service to that formula – but out of necessity, not conviction. All prefer independence: it is more pleasant to be presidents, prime ministers, generals, ambassadors and economic moneymakers at home rather than to be the provincial equivalents thereof in a larger Russian empire. The historically proven fact is that national statehood, once attained, is infectious and almost impossible to undo except through massive external force."

According to Dr. Brzezinski, modern Russia is in no position to assert a violent restoration of its old empire. "It is too weak, too backward and too poor," he says. "Its demographic crisis makes matters worse. The fact that the newly independent Central Asian states favour increasingly comprehensive arrangements with China is another concern for Russia, reawakening long lingering territorial nightmares.

It is only a question of time before it becomes evident to Russia’s social elites that Mr Putin’s heavy-handed efforts have very limited prospects of success. Sooner or later, he will no longer be president. And not long thereafter Russia – and especially its emerging new middle class – will conclude that the only path that makes sense is to become also a truly modern, democratic, and maybe even a leading European state." //BelaPAN